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Conference paper
Meteorological and weather forecast data-based prediction of electrical power delivery of a photovoltaic panel in a stochastic framework
Mario Vašak, Marko Gulin, Josip Čeović, Dražen Nikolić, Tomislav Pavlović
Proceedings of the 34th International Convention on Information and Communication Technology, Electronics and Microelectronics, Volume III. Computers in Technical Systems & Intelligent, pp.93--98, 2011
ABSTRACT:

The aim of this work is to yield a procedure for predicting expectation and covariance of power delivered by a generally tilted photovoltaic panel, based on available expectations and covariances of incident weather forecast data. The procedure consists of several steps: (i) neural-network-based identification of direct and diffuse solar irradiance models as static functions of available meteorological data; (ii) implementing the model of overall solar irradiance received on a tilted surface; (iii) determination and implementation of a thermal model of a photovoltaic panel, and (iv) implementing the unscented transformation to compute expectation and covariance of a stochastic variable after passing through a nonlinear mapping. Obtained simulation results present usefulness of the approach which is to be used within predictive control strategies of electrical storages in a microgrid with photovoltaic panels, that will optimize a combination of technical and economical criteria of the microgrid operation.

BibTeX entry:
@inproceedings \{Vasak2011_487,
author = \{Va\v{s}ak, M. AND Gulin, M. AND \v{C}eovi\'{c}, J. AND Nikoli\'{c}, D. AND Pavlovi\'{c}, T.},
title = \{Meteorological and weather forecast data-based prediction of electrical power delivery of a photovoltaic panel in a stochastic framework},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 34th International Convention on Information and Communication Technology, Electronics and Microelectronics, Volume III. Computers in Technical Systems & Intelligent},
pages = \{93--98},
year = \{2011}
}

 

 

 

 

 

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